What has changed in travel to the South this winter

Four things set the 2026-2027 season apart: Cuba has left the market, three new routes leave from Montreal, the hurricane season has inverted between the two oceans, and sargassum set a record in Mexico. Each one changes a concrete decision.

Trend articles age badly because they talk about feelings. This one talks about verifiable facts, dated 4 September 2026, and what they mean for a trip booked this autumn.

Cuba has left the market, and this is not a pause

It is the heaviest change, because it moves an entire pool of demand onto other destinations.

Air Canada suspended its Cuban routes in February 2026, following an aviation fuel shortage affecting nine of the country's airports. Air Transat, Sunwing Vacations, WestJet Vacations and WestJet Vacations Quebec followed in June, all for an indefinite period. The restart announced for 1 November was cancelled in June.

The hotel picture followed. Meliá left the island entirely in July 2026, thirty-four properties. Iberostar and Royalton had already withdrawn. Tourist arrivals fell forty-eight percent in the first quarter.

What it changes for you: the travellers who went to Varadero and Cayo Coco are shifting to the Dominican Republic and Mexico. Both markets are therefore tighter than usual this winter, which makes booking early more useful than in other years.

Cuba packages are still circulating on some sites, including those of operators that announced their own suspension. That is residual content. Have it validated before paying for anything.

Three new routes leave from Montreal

Air Transat is adding three sun destinations from Montreal this winter.

  1. Aruba, one flight a week from 12 December 2026. The island with the most predictable weather of any destination served from here.
  2. Barbados, two flights a week from 13 December 2026. An island that does not live off mass tourism, with a sheltered west coast.
  3. Los Cabos, one flight a week from 10 December 2026. On the Pacific coast, so no sargassum.

What it changes for you: one or two flights a week means imposed dates and seats that go quickly. These routes are not booked the way Cancún is, where a departure exists almost every day.

Quebec City opens toward the French Antilles

The Jean-Lesage network has widened, and two destinations there deserve more attention than they get.

Fort-de-France in Martinique moves to two flights a week, and Pointe-à-Pitre in Guadeloupe was inaugurated in February 2026. San José, Costa Rica, is added on 15 December 2026, and Cancún rises to eight flights a week.

What it changes for you: for a French-speaking traveller, the French Antilles remove the language barrier entirely, from Quebec City, without going through Montreal. They are not classic all-inclusive destinations, and that is exactly what makes them interesting to anyone who has done Punta Cana several times.

The hurricane season has inverted

Here is the least known and most useful fact of the season.

El Niño is strong this year, and it inverts the two ocean basins. NOAA forecasts a seventy-five percent probability of a below-normal Atlantic season, and a seventy percent probability of an above-normal Pacific one.

On 4 September 2026, six days from the climatological peak of 10 September, the National Hurricane Center reported no tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and two simultaneous hurricanes in the East Pacific.

What it changes for you: the usual advice reverses. Recommending Mexico's Pacific coast this year to avoid hurricanes means recommending the wrong coast. The East Pacific also opens its season on 15 May, two weeks before the Atlantic.

Sargassum set a record in Mexico

And the fact is counter-intuitive, which is why it gets reported badly.

Across the Atlantic, 2026 is the second largest sargassum year, behind 2025. You might conclude the situation is improving. On the beaches of Quintana Roo it is the opposite: more than one hundred and five thousand tonnes collected by 14 August 2026, against roughly ninety-three thousand for the whole of 2025.

The quantity at sea and the quantity on the beach do not move together. It all depends on trajectory and wind.

What it changes for you: you cannot infer the state of a beach from an annual total. What stays true is orientation: windward coasts receive it, leeward coasts are spared. And the season, June to November, leaves the winter here largely quiet.

What to do differently this year

  1. Book earlier than usual for January, February and the school break, because Cuban demand has shifted onto two destinations only.
  2. Treat the new routes as scarce seats. One flight a week to Aruba or Los Cabos does not compare to a destination served daily.
  3. Stop recommending Mexico's Pacific for hurricane calm, at least this season.
  4. Check the state of Jamaican properties rather than trusting photographs: Hurricane Melissa damaged between forty and fifty percent of hotels in October 2025 and rebuilding continues.
  5. Have any Cuba offer validated before paying.

What has not changed

The best window is still January to April, with April ahead for the balance of weather, crowds and price. The best offers of the year still appear in September and October, at the launch of the winter programmes. And travel insurance remains the expense never to cut.

Talk to an AquaTerra adviser at 1 866 628-6241. Advisers see these changes before they appear online.

See also our complete guide to the all-inclusive South, the destination comparison and the month-by-month calendar.

Voyages AquaTerra holds a Quebec travel agency licence. Booking through an agency licensed in Quebec gives access to the Fonds d'indemnisation des clients des agents de voyages (FICAV), which covers certain specific situations; the conditions are set out on opc.gouv.qc.ca. Air services, suspensions, seasonal forecasts and sargassum data cited here were verified on 4 September 2026 with the carriers, NOAA and the University of South Florida optical oceanography laboratory. They change quickly: have them revalidated before booking.

Frequently Asked Questions

Four things. Cuba has left the market, with every Canadian carrier suspending its routes indefinitely. Air Transat is adding Aruba, Barbados and Los Cabos from Montreal in December 2026. El Niño inverts the hurricane seasons between the Atlantic and the Pacific. And sargassum set a record on the beaches of Quintana Roo.
Because the demand that went to Cuba is shifting onto the Dominican Republic and Mexico. Both markets are therefore tighter than usual for January, February and the school break. The new routes to Aruba and Los Cabos, at one flight a week, also fill far faster than a destination served daily.
Air Transat is adding three destinations for the 2026-2027 winter: Aruba with one flight a week from 12 December 2026, Barbados with two flights a week from 13 December, and Los Cabos with one flight a week from 10 December.
Not this year. El Niño inverts the two basins: NOAA forecasts a 75 percent probability of a below-normal Atlantic season and a 70 percent probability of an above-normal Pacific one. On 4 September 2026 no cyclone was active in the Atlantic and two hurricanes were active simultaneously in the East Pacific.
Across the Atlantic, 2026 is lighter than 2025. On the beaches of Quintana Roo it is the opposite: more than 105,000 tonnes collected by 14 August 2026 against roughly 93,000 for all of 2025. The quantity at sea and the quantity on the beach do not move together; it depends on trajectory and wind.
Packages are still circulating on some sites, including those of operators that announced their own suspension: that is residual content. No Canadian carrier currently serves Cuba, and the restart announced for 1 November 2026 was cancelled. Have any offer validated before paying.
Rebuilding continues. The hurricane made landfall in October 2025 with the most powerful landfall ever recorded on the island, damaging between forty and fifty percent of hotels. The state of a specific property is checked case by case with an adviser rather than from a brochure photograph.
The best travel window is still January to April, with April ahead for the balance of weather, crowds and price. The best offers of the year still appear in September and October, at the launch of the winter programmes. And travel insurance remains the expense never to cut.